Your,worst,enemy,successful,in finance, share, loan Your worst enemy to successful investing - the media
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How do you make your investment decisions and where do you getyour information? If you're like most of the people I know, youlook to the experts. That's fine, however it's important to be aware that for everyexpert, there's an opinion and for every opinion there's anexpert. I have a friend who says that opinions are like noses:everyone has one but you wouldn't live in anyone else's nose! Around the first of the year, along with the New Year'sresolutions, come the New Year predictions for what will be hotand what will not. As if that isn't enough to produce a massivecase of information indigestion, now we have the cable financialshows with pretty much the opinion of the hour. What this is producing is a frenzy of buy and sell activity forstocks in general, and now for mutual funds as well. I don'tthink this approach serves either the investors in particular orthe funds in general. The big problem with this for mutual fund investors is that allthe experts are recommending different funds. It might be onething if experts had a solid basis for their perspective. Ifthey did, then you would think their recommendations would lineup and they'd all be touting the same thing. But they don't and they aren't. Oh sure, each one of them canmake a good case for their pick. But so can the next "expert."And usually both of them won't be right (if either of them is).So, where's the value in this for you? Beats me. Another problem with this approach is that many expertsrecommend different funds at different times, and, in an effortto be in the hot fund, investors keep moving from fund to fund. In the same breath, the experts are telling us to invest for thelong term. Well, I can't figure out how to do both: be in thelatest hot fund, and hold what I've got for the long haul. The downside of all of this for the funds is that sometimes afund touted as the hot one to be in attracts so much investmentattention (i.e., money) that it grows beyond its originalintention. At that point, it loses its direction and the verything that made it strong is sacrificed. And guess what happensto the performance? So, in the midst of all the hawking and hype for this fund orthat, what's an investor to do to make intelligent choices? For myself and my clients I use a trend tracking methodology,which identifies long-term trends in various markets. I researchfunds for stability and reliability as well as currentperformance. Then, when our trend indicator signals a Buy, weselect our mutual funds based on momentum figures for varioustime periods to arrive at the most promising fund(s) to use forthis cycle. This gives us a head start and sometimes, weeks after we'vebought a fund, I see it written up in financial papers as beingone of the best performers. Does this approach always put us in the number one fund? Maybenot. But we are almost always in funds that are doing very, verywell. And do we get in at the bottom and out at the very top?Again, maybe not. However, I can tell you that, using this methodology, my clientsand I followed the sell signal we got in October, 2000, and weresafely invested in solid money markets when the stock marketcrashed and burned. Is this approach for you? It depends on how much adrenaline rushyou like when you watch your investments. Personally, I fulfillmy thrill quotient with other things in life and enjoy sleepingat night when it comes to my investments.
Your,worst,enemy,successful,in