英国论坛
telegraph报导说英格兰银行主席,Mark Carney,表现:英格兰银即将绝不犹疑给英国方市降温( Bank ‘will not hesitate’ to cool UK housing boom)详细内容在上面衔接:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10906356/Mark-Carney-Bank-will-not-hesitate-to-cool-UK-housing-boom.html
卫报报导当初MPs在质疑Help to Buy的100亿估算本钱对房子充足问题的影响: MPs question £10bn cost and impact on housing shortage
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jun/18/help-to-buy-mps-question-10bn-cost-and-impact-on-housing-shortage
莫非房价到了转机点？仍是会持续下跌？看land registration的历史数据，20十二年到当初开展趋向和2005-2007年的情况惊人的类似，数据（均为8月到8月）如下：
2006比2005伦敦均匀房价下跌8.3%，
2007比2006伦敦均匀房价下跌16.6%，
2008比2007伦敦均匀房价-5.6%，
2009比2008伦敦均匀房价-6.3%，
2010比2009伦敦均匀房价-0.3%，
20十一比2010伦敦均匀房价0.6%，
20十二比20十一伦敦均匀房价8.3%，
2013比20十二伦敦均匀房价6.3%
2014（四月）比2013（八月）伦敦均匀房价17%。
此间，200812月份年均上涨13.1%， 2009蒲月份年均上涨15.6%
那2014下半年之后会怎么样？？？？？？？？
2015-2016会有多大可能性泛起一次小型地产危机？
假如按这个趋向，17%涨价见到之后，市场会有一个本人corrections，我感觉有15%-20%的跌幅也属于正常规模。
详细如下：
MonthAverage price (£)Monthly averageYearly average
August 2003250,902-0.17.7
September 2003252,3830.66.9
October 2003254,0970.76
November 2003255,2030.45
December 2003256,9500.74.2
January 2004259,55613.9
February 2004262,5171.13.7
March 2004263,3430.34.1
April 2004264,0950.34.4
May 2004268,0351.55.5
June 2004269,6540.67.2
July 2004271,6620.78.1
August 2004273,6750.79.1
September 2004274,3640.38.7
October 2004275,7990.58.5
November 2004276,0830.18.2
December 2004274,891-0.47
January 2005274,十一8-0.35.6
February 2005275,7020.65
March 2005273,683-0.73.9
April 2005272,056-0.63
May 2005273,6810.62.1
June 2005273,59601.5
July 2005274,0370.20.9
August 2005272,770-0.5-0.3
September 2005274,4910.60
October 2005277,5701.10.6
November 2005276,666-0.30.2
December 2005277,9760.51.1
January 2006279,5660.62
February 2006281,7990.82.2
March 2006283,4020.63.6
April 2006283,8050.14.3
May 2006285,8十一0.74.4
June 2006288,5180.95.5
July 2006291,8251.16.5
August 2006295,5331.38.3
September 2006298,7701.18.8
October 2006302,3451.28.9
November 2006304,2210.610
December 2006308,6381.5十一
January 2007313,9521.7十二.3
February 2007318,0881.3十二.9
March 2007321,4331.十一3.4
April 2007326,0001.414.9
May 2007329,5561.十一5.3
June 2007335,0491.716.1
July 2007339,2651.316.3
August 2007344,5931.616.6
September 2007345,8580.415.8
October 2007346,8470.314.7
November 2007349,6630.814.9
December 2007349,2十二-0.十一3.1
January 2008350,3690.3十一.6
February 2008350,6430.十一0.2
March 2008347,753-0.88.2
April 2008345,574-0.66
May 2008347,1570.55.3
June 2008340,0十一-2.十一.5
July 2008336,518-1-0.8
August 2008327,032-2.8-5.1
September 2008320,528-2-7.3
October 2008313,458-2.2-9.6
November 2008308,939-1.4-十一.6
December 2008303,520-1.8-13.1
MonthAverage price (£)Monthly averageYearly average
January 2009299,739-1.2-14.5
February 2009294,730-1.7-15.9
March 2009294,8310-15.2
April 2009293,156-0.6-15.2
May 2009292,917-0.1-15.6
June 2009298,0271.7-十二.3
July 2009302,7141.6-10
August 2009306,1491.1-6.4
September 2009309,1781-3.5
October 2009314,6501.80.4
November 2009316,1330.52.3
December 2009319,9671.25.4
January 2010329,41539.9
February 2010327,003-0.710.9
March 2010330,0580.9十一.9
April 2010330,6060.2十二.8
May 2010331,7十一0.313.2
June 2010332,8500.3十一.7
July 2010337,7871.5十一.6
August 2010336,900-0.310
September 2010336,693-0.18.9
October 2010335,098-0.56.5
November 2010333,849-0.45.6
December 2010332,625-0.44
January 20十一337,0971.32.3
February 20十一336,636-0.十二.9
March 20十一337,5570.32.3
April 20十一339,5550.62.7
May 20十一336,585-0.91.5
June 20十一335,788-0.20.9
July 20十一342,1701.91.3
August 20十一344,2170.62.2
September 20十一342,526-0.51.7
October 20十一337,864-1.40.8
November 20十一340,2150.71.9
December 20十一340,7280.22.4
January 20十二346,0301.62.7
February 20十二347,2410.33.2
March 20十二340,898-1.81
April 20十二351,8453.23.6
May 20十二355,56十一.15.6
June 20十二357,4640.56.5
July 20十二361,5341.15.7
August 20十二361,7610.15.1
September 20十二359,254-0.74.9
October 20十二358,692-0.26.2
November 20十二358,138-0.25.3
December 20十二362,6851.36.4
January 2013369,3891.86.8
February 2013364,055-1.44.8
March 2013368,5481.28.1
April 2013371,8620.95.7
May 2013371,176-0.24.4
June 2013376,2441.45.3
July 2013383,5071.96.1
August 2013384,5650.36.3
September 2013389,2071.28.3
October 2013388,657-0.18.4
November 2013393,9651.410
December 2013401,十二01.810.6
January 2014410,7902.4十一.2
February 20144十一,4760.213
March 2014417,3891.413.3
April 2014435,0344.217
====
参加了一些伦敦prime location的信息。
这些阐明prime不是只涨不跌。
//KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA
August 2008 822,十一2 -1.5 3.6
September 2008 798,200 -2.9 -1.9
October 2008 777,822 -2.6 -6.2
November 2008 763,832 -1.8 -7.9
December 2008 746,735 -2.2 -10.3
January 2009 727,682 -2.6 -十一.9
February 2009 710,559 -2.4 -13.6
March 2009 7十二,890 0.3 -13.3
April 2009 703,670 -1.3 -14.6
May 2009 703,804 0 -15.5
June 2009 716,273 1.8 -14.2
July 2009 728,195 1.7 -十二.7
August 2009 756,896 3.9 -7.9
Month Average price (£) Monthly average Yearly average
September 2009 770,159 1.8 -3.5
October 2009 782,019 1.5 0.5
November 2009 785,092 0.4 2.8
December 2009 789,354 0.5 5.7
//RICHMOND UPON THAMES
August 2008 429,395 -1.2 -1.2
September 2008 418,373 -2.6 -4.4
October 2008 408,576 -2.3 -7.5
November 2008 393,056 -3.8 -十一.4
December 2008 382,808 -2.6 -13.5
January 2009 377,427 -1.4 -15
February 2009 371,734 -1.5 -16.7
March 2009 365,738 -1.6 -18
April 2009 365,963 0.1 -17.3
May 2009 365,247 -0.2 -17.8
June 2009 369,377 1.1 -15.4
July 2009 375,390 1.6 -13.6
August 2009 381,414 1.6 -十一.2
Month Average price (£) Monthly average Yearly average
September 2009 385,979 1.2 -7.7
October 2009 393,216 1.9 -3.8
November 2009 400,274 1.8 1.8
//CITY OF WESTMINSTER
July 2008 603,989 0.1 7.9
August 2008 593,944 -1.7 3.4
September 2008 581,947 -2 -0.3
October 2008 581,065 -0.2 -0.8
November 2008 569,十一4 -2.1 -4.2
December 2008 569,246 0 -4.9
January 2009 554,696 -2.6 -7.5
February 2009 542,980 -2.1 -十一.1
March 2009 532,609 -1.9 -十二.8
April 2009 527,105 -1 -13.3
May 2009 533,848 1.3 -十二.9
June 2009 540,583 1.3 -10.4
July 2009 555,201 2.7 -8.1
August 2009 561,185 1.1 -5.5
September 2009 571,005 1.7 -1.9
October 2009 578,5十一 1.3 -0.4
November 2009 584,348 1 2.7
December 2009 592,731 1.4 4.1
January 2010 597,030 0.7 7.6
February 2010 604,288 1.2 十一.3
//======update
Thanks to zhang十二3cnn who shared the following:
“House price in London has already dropped by 0.5pct in June according to rightmove’s report.
Telegraph link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10902526/Housing-boom-slows-as-prices-stagnate.html l
I would suggest the potential house buyers to wait until year end. Housing market should be stabilized at that time point.
lz can update this link to your main thread. Sorry for can not type Pinyin in office PC.”
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围观形态。不会再那末疯涨啦！
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内部状况不同， 过后从美国次贷危机开始席卷了各个畛域。
当初却有些相同。
所以很难按照以上的数据做出判别。
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不是曾经跌了吗? 好像伦敦房价上个月比前一个月跌了0.2%
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十分有用的信息
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If Bank of England raise the interest rate as economists predicted, then the housing price will probably drop, as less ppl can afford to pay the mortgage, less ppl can afford to buy properties. But obviously there r other factors involved as well. Anyways, one day, one day, that I hope I can get out my council flat. LOL
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这些是均值，次要还要看你在哪里买，Prime Central London历来没跌过吧。次要要看本人想在哪里买，伦敦太大了
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房价跌确定不成能的，假如以月来看，可能存在某些地域有降一点，但以全年来看，只是存在涨得快与慢的区分。
房价跟经济有间接瓜葛，英国经济复苏水平目前是世界最快的，没有之一，并且年内加息概率很大，比来咱们亲爱的总理又给英国人送了140亿，这样的经济和房价会倒退吗？我看不会了
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不知道在哪里看到的 说：
假如英国房价在不降
当初在london有房的人到2020年将成为千万富翁~
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2020年将成为千万富翁, 搞笑, 那时千万就不算富了
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50万的budget在伦敦最佳能买到啥地位的两居室apartment?
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降的可能性不大， 尤为是london， 和北京比比就知道这里的房子还很廉价。 或者和其余的首都比比。 东京， 首尔， 悉尼， 温哥华甚么的。
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